Thailand is not out of the woods

Restarting in Thailand? This is what promises power from the military coup of May 22, 2014 with a growth of at least 4% for 2015. The World Bank is less optimistic. On January 14, it reduced its previous forecast of 3.6% to only 3%. On 2014, the economy will have grown to the best of + 0.5% or stagnated under the effect of a fall in domestic consumption and tourism and a sluggish exports, the main driver of the economy accounting for 60% of GDP. The automotive sector (Thailand is the first Asian Southeast car maker) has notably collapsed by 25%, the only indoor market plunged 40%. In November, the total industrial production of the kingdom fell for the twentieth consecutive month (- 3.5%).
Production capacity of this beloved country of foreign investors are employed only 60%. In short, if the “order” has returned, the economy is still paying a heavy price for the years 2013 and especially 2014 disturbances This period was marked by the confrontation between Yellow Shirts, ultra-royalists from urban elites and Red Shirts . Representing primarily rural northern populations, the “Reds” argued the former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra deposed a few days before the coup, including the establishment of a disastrous rice subsidy system. Since the arrival of the commander in chief of the army Prayut Chan-o-cha as prime minister, power promises the return to constitutional order after the adoption of a new constitution. This is being discussed and one of its challenges is banishment from public life of Yingluck Shinawatra. In short, nothing is settled.
Alongside this institutional issue, and while powerful techno continues to manage the country, the government “transitional” tries to revive the economy. In this country of 67 million, posting 334.5 billion euros of GDP, it has taken stimulus estimated at 8.64 billion euros: investment in infrastructure, administrative simplifications and further support to … rice, leaving skeptical observers. Treated with circumspection by much of the international community, the executive also seeks new friends. And turns to China. While traditional support of Thailand are Japan and the United States, Prayut Chan-o-cha began a pas de deux with Beijing. The reciprocal visits of senior leaders multiply. Both countries sealed in December, an agreement in principle for a high-speed train, the project repeatedly adjourned. China became the largest trading partner of Bangkok promises to double rice or rubber purchases. Was the support that can be.

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