All economic engines seem to have stalled in Thailand, making them very poor economic prospects for 2015, said Mr. Thanawat Polvichai, director of Economic Centre and forecasts of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
The contraction in economic growth, falling exports and domestic consumption, falling agricultural prices and the delayed disbursement of government spending have combined to darken the economic outlook for 2015.
At the beginning of the year, there were few signs of a recovery in domestic demand. In January, the monthly data indicated that private investment and private consumption remained weak.
Exports were also low in January, suggesting that external demand is still lackluster.
Forecasts exports throughout the year that was previously growing 4.1% were revised down to 0.4%.
Only exception that the tourism sector is expected to grow by 13.7% with 28.8 million arrivals scheduled for 2015, based on the recovery observed since early 2015.
Weak exports drag on growth
As economic growth is dependent on exports to Thailand, economic forecasts and Centre of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce considered three scenarios:
Exports increased by 0.4 percent, and the growth rate will be 3.2%.
Export growth is zero and the rate of economic growth will be 2.9%.
The export growth rate was negative at -1%, and the rate of economic growth will be 1.9%.
Mr. Thanawat the likelihood of exports restart is low, however, because the major trading partners of Thailand as the European Union and Japan still experiencing an economic downturn.
The political climate remains tense
Recently, the Supreme Court of Thailand announced that it would launch pousuites against former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on her rice subsidy program.
The trial was set for 19 May.
If found guilty, the former prime minister could face up to ten years in prison, which could put an end to the political domination of his family, or otherwise trigger a new round of protests and riots street.